Now that Bitcoin appears to be in its respective markup phase, I wanted to take a look at how BTC might outperform traditional equities (via SPY) over the coming months. Back in July, I wrote a Market Sector Analysis and Bitcoin Charts post where I’ve shared this Bitcoin vs. SPY chart before:
Relative to SPY, Bitcoin could be setting up a very nice leg up soon. See the chart below.
Bitcoin Chart 2: Weekly Bitcoin/SPY with Breakouts
I took the ratio from the chart above1 and updated it just a tad to show the returns from the respective markup periods in the prior two (2) halving cycles.
The average markup duration from the prior two (2) halving cycles is 252 days2
The average markup gain from the prior two (2) halving cycles is 1767% (or 18.67x)3
This is just an average with a very, very small sample size. Nothing is guaranteed (see disclosure below). But just for fun, I’ve calculated the time and price that the BLX/SPY ratio would peak if the averages were to play out: August ‘21 with a ratio of 1382.
For perspective, the current BTCUSD/SPY ratio (as I type this) is just under 123.
Disclosure: Shortly after starting the Charts for Freedom portfolio in the summer of 2020, I went long Bitcoin. I remain long Bitcoin and add Bitcoin call options on a regular basis. Notifications are sent to premium members as each purchase is made.4
Using BLX ticker in lieu of BTC on Tradingview because of its more thorough historical data
Based on the duration from the breakout candle to the ATH candle
Calculated from BLX/SPY ratio (high wick to high wick)
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