Good afternoon,
It was an incredible week for the markets!
Last weekend I noted SPY, QQQ, and DIA continuing along with their rising trends, holding above the 10 & 30-week SMAs.
This weekend I am very pleased to see that IWM put in the strongest week of them all, now rising back above the 10 & 30-week SMAs. The US2000 futures (Russell 2k futures) broke above its bearish 45° on the 4-hour chart I track (see below). I think it could be signaling a pivot in the micro/small/mid-caps, and that’s one of the things I wanted to focus on this weekend.
Today I’ll look over:
Major ETFs (Part 1)
Micro/Small/Mid-cap ETFs (Part 1)
Review, analysis, and relative strength in Bitcoin Stocks (Part 2)
Major ETFs
SPY
QQQ
DIA
Again, SPY, QQQ, and DIA continue rising in their respective channels/trends. Of the three, the leader here stands out as QQQ. It is easier to look at them as relative strength charts.
NDX vs. SPX:
The above is the monthly chart. As long as this ratio holds above 3.30, I want to favor the tech names. Perhaps this hangs out & consolidates around 3.30, but either way, I will continue seeking the setups in the leading tech industries/names.
Industrials don’t look as good:
DJI vs. SPX:
Leading into the COVID March ‘20 selloff, the industrials were struggling. Then they chopped around for a year relative to SPX and have recently started another descent lower.
Zooming out to the monthly:
And Quarterly (for more perspective):
The bottom line is these all continue rising higher, but the fastest horse has been QQQ. It is approaching one of my longer-term targets shared with premium members at $391.
Micro/Small/Midcaps (weekly charts):
IWC (Micro)
IWM (Small)
MDY (Mid)
On Friday, I had an alert go off for a break of the bearish 45° trend on my futures chart.
Whenever a trend break happens, it always gets my attention and alerts me to take a closer look.
The “fastest horse” appears to be the mid-caps (MDY) of the three in this category.
Relative to SPY, it still has some work to do.
MDY vs. SPY:
Step one will be to break above (and hold) the $507.63 level. I’ll set an alert and revisit if/when it triggers.
This concludes Part 1 (free) for this weekend update. In part 2 (premium members only), I’ll take a closer look and analyze Bitcoin, bitcoin stocks, and their respective relative strengths, seeking out the leaders for potentially enormous moves.
Thought of the week
It has been a jam-packed summer (and year). This weekend I celebrated my wife and daughter’s birthdays. The parties were fun, the food was good, the smiles on their faces were big. Not to get too cheesy, but I’m reminded that the big joys in life are right there in front of me regardless of my schedule. And the goal is more about enjoying those little moments that the journey brings. Have a fantastic week, everybody.