Market Outlook 02-Jul-2023
Quarterly Update, Sector Scans--Stock Setups & Ideas, Bitcoin, 2023 Monthly Tracker Update, Seasonality
Good morning investors and traders,
Reminder:
All major U.S. financial markets will be closed on Tuesday July 4, in observance of the Independence Day holiday. Additionally, major U.S. stock markets will close early at 1 pm ET on Monday July 3.
There is a lot to go over today:
Quarterly Sector Charts with scan results, including some chart setups & ideas
Sector Comparison chart (with and without BTC included)
Four Major ETF comparison chart
Bitcoin - Trends, Objectives, Seasonality
2023 Performance Tracker (>4% Jan & negative Feb)
SPX, NDX & Gold Pre-Election Year Seasonality
Quarterly Sector Charts (Ranked by YTD Performance):
XLK - Technology
Unsurprisingly, tech has been strong and is the first-half winner. What a change from the way things ended last year.
Of the industries, again, no surprise, Semiconductors are the winner.
Here are the Semiconductors that have performed the best over the past 3, 6 & 12 months:
This group has some amazing charts.
Let's take a brief look at NVDA:
Recently, NVDA has had an incredible run. However, last week, I chose Bitcoin mining stock MARA instead. This was primarily because of its extension from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
The chart above shows the prior times the price has been extended from the 200-day
While this doesn’t guarantee a significant pullback, it does raise some caution flags for me—not only for NVDA, but for the industry as a whole.
In a scenario where the industry leader has a major pullback, I would be cautious when approaching other names in the industry. But that remains to be seen.
I should note that NVDA achieved ATHs on this extension from the 200-day, which it failed to do on the prior two extensions.
Other than NVDA, here are the ones that really stand out to me:
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