“Don’t give me timing, give me time” - Jesse Livermore
I love this Livermore quote, and today is a perfect example of why. Back on October 12th, I sent out a trade idea to premium members and I bought Disney leaps (link here).
After reviewing the chart, and coming up with very high point and figure counts, I absolutely wanted to be on the long side. I suspected a large move was coming and so I wanted to maximize potential gains by using options.
However, using options left me with a dilemma: Will the move happen before my expiration hits? If I didn’t go out far enough with the expiration, my contracts could expire and I might miss out.
So I went with the options that (at the time) gave me exposure to a big upside move for 466 days. Later that night, I sent the following chart to premium members:
Here is DIS:
This has two counts at $381 and $313
The first count of $381 is generated using the 4% box size PnF chart, counting the 9-years of accumulation from 2000-2009
The second count of $313 is generated using the same 4% box size PnF chart, counting the 5-years of accumulation from 2015-2020.
These counts are very high, and are nearly matching. Often times, when a second count can be generated that matches the initial count, price is signaling that it is ready to move. So here DIS is with a second count in the $300s, which is close enough to the initial count.
This is what the (daily) chart looks like now:
As you can see from the blue arrow on the chart, I was a bit early on my timing (about 3 weeks). But with the expected move, and enough time, I am ok with that. Patience for the big move pays and these grand slams can do wonders for a portfolio. These calls are now a 5.4 bagger from the initial entry (+442%) and join the recently closed IWM calls (+440%) (sent to premium members) as 5+ bagger status.
Riding a leap option to 5+ bagger status is an incredible journey and I hope everyone gets to experience it at least once. Charts for Freedom premium members have experienced it twice in the last month.
Nothing is guaranteed. This DIS trade wasn’t, my last trade isn’t, and my next trade won’t be. But with good discipline and risk management I have found that not every idea has to pan out. Preserve capital when needed, and let winners run when they are running. I enter every trade expecting a big move, but am prepared to be stopped out when the tape proves me wrong.
Today I just took a new dated call position in a stock showing incredible strength vs. SPX, which is from a top industry in leading sector. This trade is for premium members only.
I regularly scan every sector and the top industries in them looking for the best stock setups. I share trade ideas in real time as I take them. If this is something you would be interested in, please consider becoming a premium member.
The seventeen open options trades I have shared with premium members are currently up 46% on average. The four closed options trades are up 159% on average. This week I have taken three dated call positions and shared those ideas in real-time.
If you’re interested in that latest trade, the details are here (locked for premium members).
Have a great night and enjoy your weekends!
All the best,
Trace