Good morning,
I wanted to quickly update some of the Bitcoin charts and PnF Distribution targets I’ve counted this morning.
I’ll start with the distro count first, and I will use the 60-minute PnF chart with a 1% box size. I’m using the 1% box size on this timeframe because that aligns well with the ATR% for the hourly chart.
Then I’ll share some other charts showing various support zones. I’ve highlighted some on the PnF channel and the pitchfork charts below.
There’s a clear “by the book” distribution target of $45,176. This target is now active with the O that printed at $55,674 in the very early hours this morning.
However, there are various support zones that I’ve shown in green shades. There should be a MAJOR support in the lowest zone, which is just below the distribution target. I don’t know if this is a realistic target for the bears, but anything is possible.
When looking at the daily candle chart, Bitcoin tested channel support just a few hours ago at today’s current lows.
I’m referring to the parallel channel support (dotted line). So far, this has held up as support twice: 1. July lows 2. September lows
In addition to the above channel support, there is one more thing I’ll point out. I am going back to the ATR% pitchfork chart for this one.
I’ve shared this one before with the ATR % at the bottom and pitchfork laid over on price. The price is currently being supported at the pitchfork line that served as support in the late stages of the 2017 rally and the early 2021 rally (January).
Zooming in:
I’m going to continue watching this for signs of seller’s exhaustion. There could be a final flush to that distribution target around the $45k area, which is now active.
I should also point out that the 30-week SMA is just around the $46.7k area as I type this, shown below with the orange moving average:
Signs of seller’s exhaustion:
High-volume candles, coinciding with very long wicks. These usually end up well off the lows and have a rapid rally from the low point.
The momentum is VERY coiled on the daily timeframe. However, the weekly is starting to curl bearish. At these inflection points where the daily cycle is extended bearish, but the weekly is turning bearish, I’ve typically seen feverish activity similar to today’s action. In bull cycles, the daily energy should be enough to “stick save” the rally and prevent the weekly from going into its respective bear cycle.
I’m hoping you had a great Thanksgiving (or just a great Thursday if you’re not in the states), and have a great weekend.
Trace